Sep
9
2010

 

AUD/USD Tops August Highs on Employment Data

The Aussie is surging past previous August highs after Australia’s employment change figure topped 30k and the unemployment rate dipped to 5.1%.  Australia’s economy continues to outperform despite slack in the U.S. and UK as China’s hunger for natural resources power Australia forward.  The strong performance is now spreading from the mining sector to household consumption and brings the RBA another step closer to hiking its benchmark rate regardless of economic headwinds blowing from the West.  The continual outperformance of Australian fundamentals has sent the Aussie surging higher and the currency pair is now eyeing previous 2010 eyes.  That being said, if fundamentals in the U.S. were to take a turn for the better then April 2010 highs could come under fire rather quickly.  The U.S. will print trade balance data today followed by weekly unemployment claims.  If the U.S. trade deficit widens beyond -$50 billion then risk aversion could cap gains in the Aussie.  Additionally, if weekly unemployment claims head back towards their psychological 500k mark this would be an unwelcome near-term development for bulls.  On the other hand, if unemployment claims reflect the improvement we saw in last week’s NFP release then the Aussie could extend intraday gains.   
Technically speaking, the Aussie faces technical barriers in the form of intraday highs.   As for the downside, the Aussie has multiple medium-term uptrend lines working in its favor along with intraday and 9/8 lows.  Meanwhile, the highly psychological .90 level becomes a technical cushion once again.  
Price: .9249
Resistances: .9250, .9261, .9275, .9291, .9303, .9316, .9332
Supports: .9239, .9227, .9217, .9186, .9175, .9164, .9147
Psychological:  .90, August Highs
 
 
 

 
Posted by: Matthew Myers

 

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