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S&P Futures Wrestle with 1100

Written by Matthew Myers
2010-07-29 13:55

The S&P futures are back in the red today after Fed official Bullard stated that the Fed may consider another round of quantitative easing should the U.S. suffer another setback from a negative external shock.  The cautious comments from Bullard have resulted in a pullback in the Greenback and U.S. equities are in retreat as well.  However, the S&P futures are still trading above our key medium-term downtrend line, meaning the S&P is in bullish territory so long as losses are somewhat contained.  Meanwhile, it’s not surprising that 1100 is proving to be a challenging barrier considering its psychological prevalence.  The S&P futures should get a good test tomorrow with the release of prelim GDP.  It’s hard to imagine a positive GDP figure considering the recent wave of negative data, including yesterday’s sluggish durable goods figures.  Although weekly unemployment claims printed in line with estimates at 457k, claims remain at a historically high level and above the psychological 400k level.  Regardless, the S&P futures may opt to rally tomorrow even if prelim GDP doesn’t impress considering equities have performed relative well lately in light of weak U.S. fundamentals.  As long as U.S. data stays weak the Fed will stay dovish, which tends to be positive for corporations.  Q2 earnings have been stronger than expected overall despite headwinds from the EU.  Meanwhile, the EUR/USD and Cable continue to strengthen following a positive response to last week’s EU stress test results, in effect reducing investor uncertainty across the board.  Regardless of the positive trends taking shape, it will be interesting to see how equities react to tomorrow’s data set, which also includes the employment cost index, revised UoM consumer sentiment, and the Chicago PMI.     

    
Price: 1096
Psychological: 1100
 
 
 
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