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USD/JPY Dips Towards Monthly Lows on Bullard Comments

Written by Matthew Myers
2010-07-29 13:53

The USD/JPY has taken a sizable step lower today, retreating towards previous July lows after Fed official Bullard stated that the central bank should be prepared to inject more QE into the system should the U.S. economy suffer another setback from a negative external shock.  The dovish language from Bullard shows that the Fed has little intent in tightening any time soon, sending the dollar lower across the board.  Meanwhile, the risk trade is performing well, as exhibited by breakouts in the EUR/USD and Cable.  The strong performance of the risk trade is likely allowing the USD/JPY to hold above previous July lows and while avoiding a retest of 2009 lows since the currency pair normally has a positive correlation with risk.  Meanwhile, investors will turn their attention towards the data wire during tomorrow’s Asia trading session with a key data set coming from Japan.  Investors will digest household spending, prelim industrial production, and the Tokyo core CPI.  Keep a close eye on CPI since the BoJ is notoriously wary of deflation and if CPI comes in below -1.2% then investors could speculate that the central bank will intervene vocally in support of higher prices.  The U.S. will release key data of its own, including prelim GDP, Chicago PMI, and revised consumer sentiment.  Hence, the USD/JPY could be in for an active Friday.

 
Technically speaking, the USD/JPY has technical supports in the form of intraday and 7/22 lows.  Additionally, the psychological 85 level could serve as a solid cushion should it be tested.  As for the topside, the USD/JPY faces technical barriers in the form of intraday and 7/20 highs. 
Present Price: 86.81
Resistances: 86.82, 87.02, 87.20, 87.35, 87.49, 87.65
Supports:    86.71, 86.58, 86.46, 86.32, 86.22, 86
Psychological:  85, 90, July lows
 
 
 
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